David Getreuer Jensen

Ph.D. studerende, M.Sc.

Dansk title på Ph.D. projekt: Udvikling af vejrradar baseret nowcast modeller til assimilering i vejrmodeller.

English title of ph.d. project: Development of weather radar based nowcast models for assimilation in numerical weather models

Hydrological models are controlled by rain as input and therefore being able to correctly forecast precipitation is crucial in hydrological forecasting. The applicability of the hydrological forecasts in the HydroCast project is based on short term predictions for e.g. real-time operation of infrastructure and warning and protection against flooding. This induce a need for high confidence short term quantitative precipitation forecasts. Getting sufficient short term predictability from numerical weather prediction models (NWP) for hydrological forecasting is difficult because of most likely inaccurate initial conditions along with succeeding spin-up effects.

A way to improve the inadequate performance of the NWP models on short lead times for usage in hydrological forecasting can be achived by improving the initial conditions. One approach to improve the initial conditions is to assimilate observational weather radar data into the NWP models. So the idea of this current project is to produce and assimilate a 3D weather based radar nowcast into a NWP model and also handle the related inevitable uncertainties.

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